When will nuclear fusion get out of the lab and onto the grid?

So much news about this "infinite" energy source, but when will we see commercial deployments?

It seems like every week there’s a new article that drops about “a major breakthrough” in nuclear fusion research coming from various research labs around the world, or even private companies breaking ground on fusion powerplants before the technology is even developed. The idea of infinite energy is no doubt exciting, but with all of these news drops it’s tough to figure out exactly where the tech is, and how far we are from seeing it deployed in the real world. Let’s dive in and figure it out together.

Fusion’s promise

Nuclear fusion is super exciting to the energy community because it replicates the same process that powers our sun, fusing hydrogen atoms together to form helium while releasing huge amounts of energy. The fuel for this process comes from isotopes like deuterium, which can be extracted from seawater and other abundant resources of which the earth has enough to power civilization for millions of years, and tritium, which will be produced from within the reactors. That’s why it’s often referred to as an “infinite” energy source.

It also produces no carbon emissions, has minimal risk of nuclear meltdown, and generates almost no long-lived radioactive waste. In theory, fusion could deliver stable baseload power for the whole world, enough to replace coal, natural gas, and fission powerplants without the environmental tradeoffs.

Fusion’s challenges

The problem is that bringing the power of the sun to earth isn’t easy. To get hydrogen atoms to fuse you need them to hit over 100 million degrees Celsius, hotter than the sun’s core, then keep that plasma confined long a long period of time. Scientists can get the initial reaction started, but the problem that they have continuously faced is keeping the plasma reaction going long enough to produce more energy than it required to start the reaction. It has been achieved at the laboratory scale but scaling that up and maintaining the reaction long enough to get meaningful energy production out of it has proven difficult to say the least (Interesting Engineering).

If they’re spending more energy to start the reaction than they get out of it, then it’s not really an “infinite” energy source, is it?

What’s new this year?

• AI Fusion Control: Researchers at Google DeepMind and Commonwealth Fusion Systems are teaming up to try to use AI for plasma control (Interesting Engineering).

• China’s Artificial Sun: China’s “artificial sun” project, the EAST Tokomak hit 120 million degrees Celsius and sustained the reaction for over 17 minutes. They’re claiming to be on track to be the first country to commercialize fusion (SCMP).

• UK Ignition Milestone: Scientists in Britain have announced that they have achieved sustained fusion energy pulses exceeding prior European records (Redditch Standard).

• Helion’s Commercial Leap: Helion Energy, in collaboration with Microsoft and the DOE, have broken ground in Washington on what they claim will be the world’s first commercial fusion power plant, targeting an online date of early 2030’s (425Business).

• Germany’s Fusion Plant Design: A German company, Gauss Fusion, has presented a design for what could be Europe’s first commercial fusion power plant, targeting an online date of mid 2040’s (World Nuclear News).

So, is all the news hype or legit?

There has been some major progress in recent years, but the real answer is that no one really knows. It’s pretty easy to read between the lines of the news above and see that, while big advancements are being made in fusion, it’s still going to be a long time before we see any commercial deployments. Companies can design and build powerplants all they want, but until a nuclear fusion reaction can be sustained for indefinite periods of time in a laboratory, it will be impossible for anyone to rely on it for baseload power.

Sources

1. Record net-positive fusion energy gains achieved at US laser facility

2. US firm advances with Google to fine tune nuclear fusion reactor plasma

3. Nuclear fusion: could China be the first to harness the energy that powers the sun? | South China Morning Post

4. Britain Ignites a New Dawn in Clean Energy: UK Scientists Celebrate Major Nuclear Fusion Breakthrough - The Redditch Standard

5. Everett’s Helion Energy OK’d for Next Phase of Power Plant | News | 425business.com

6. Gauss Fusion releases blueprint for development of its GIGA fusion plant - World Nuclear News